Most economists
believe the U.S. doesn't need another round of stimulus now despite expectations of continued
severe job losses.
Just eight
of 51 economists in The Wall Street Journal's latest forecasting survey said more stimulus is necessary, suggesting an average
of about $600 billion in additional spending. On average, the economists forecast an unemployment rate of at least 10% through
next June, with a decline to 9.5% by December 2010.
The bulk
of the stimulus wouldn't be felt until 2010. When asked how much the stimulus has helped the economy, 53% of respondents said
it has provided somewhat of a boost but that the larger effect is still to come.
That sentiment
echoes what the Obama administration has said about the stimulus.
Most economists
appear content to take the wait-and-see approach, as on average they are expecting the just-ended second quarter to be the
last in which gross domestic product contracts. They forecast growth rising more than 2% on a seasonally adjusted annualized
basis in the first half of 2010. Meanwhile, the median forecast sees the end of the recession next month.
The Wall
Street Journal surveys a group of 54 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators
are conducted every month. Once a year, economists are ranked on how well their forecasts have fared..
Some economists
had other reasons for opposing the stimulus. More than one-third of respondents said the government package would have only
a small effect on the economy, while 6% said the stimulus has hurt the economy.
Most economists
were generally supportive of the Obama administration's plan to overhaul financial regulations. Some 44% said the proposal
was acceptable given political realities, while 15% said it would make the financial system safer. Still, 23% said the plan
would stifle innovation and hurt growth, and 19% said it is a feeble attempt at addressing vulnerabilities exposed during
the crisis.
On average,
the economists said there is a 65% chance a regulatory overhaul in some form would be signed into law by this time next year.
That compares with the 50% chance they placed on climate-change or health-care legislation passing in the next 12 months.
The administration's
performance continues to divide economists. President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner both got a median
70 out of 100 for their handling of the financial crisis, but those grades varied widely. Former President George W. Bush
and ex-Treasury chief Henry Paulson got median grades of 50 and 60, respectively, when economists were asked how they handled
the crisis while in office.
By contrast,
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke remains at the head of the class with a median grade of 85; 93% of respondents said
he should be reappointed by Mr. Obama early next year.